Energy Market Daily Digest — July 5, 2026

Market status — July 5, 2026

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Morning briefing for July 5, 2026. The story of the week remains the historic Eastern heat wave that pushed PJM to the brink of a 20-year-old demand record and triggered federal emergency orders. Conditions are easing over the holiday weekend, but capacity tags, emergency dispatch activity, and regulatory fallout are all in motion.

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PJM — Elevated

• 5CP Capacity Tags: July 1 delivered 161,859 MW of real-time load at HE18, the second-highest load day in PJM history, with forecasts near 166,000 MW approaching the all-time record of 165,563 MW set in 2006. These hours are near-certain 5CP candidates, and any customer that curtailed during HE17-HE19 on June 30 through July 2 likely captured significant capacity tag savings. (Yes Energy, Utility Dive)
• Real-Time LMP: RTO-wide LMPs pushed toward $2,000/MWh during peak hours midweek, with Western Hub day-ahead settling as high as $1,222.75/MWh and Virginia-zone spot prices above $600/MWh. Operating reserves sank to roughly 5,100 MW from about 11,000 MW the prior day. Prices are retreating as the heat breaks over the weekend. (Yes Energy, Reuters via Investing.com)
• Demand Response: DOE issued Section 202(c) emergency orders authorizing PJM to curtail data centers and other large loads of 50 MW or more through July 3, the third data-center curtailment order in 2026. With 2026/27 capacity prices at a record $120,147/MW-year, the economics for DR participation are the strongest in decades. (Electric Choice, Integrity Energy)

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NYISO — Elevated

• ICAP Tag Tracking: Thursday’s estimated peak of 32,410 MW came within roughly 1,500 MW of the state’s all-time record of 33,956 MW (July 2013). That hour is the leading candidate for the summer coincident peak that sets ICAP tags, so customers who curtailed during the late-afternoon window should note it. (ABC News)
• Emergency Activity: NYISO called for voluntary conservation, and Con Edison reduced voltage by 8 percent in parts of the Bronx and Upper Manhattan to protect equipment during repairs. No confirmed CBEP activation notices surfaced in public reporting. (ABC7 NY)
• Day-Ahead Pricing: Downstate zones (NYC, Long Island) carried the widest spreads during the heat event as heat indices reached 110 F in the city. Pricing is normalizing with the holiday weekend load drop. (Weather.com)

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ERCOT — Normal

• 4CP Season Tracking: We are in month two of the four-month 4CP window (June through September). The Texas heat has been less extreme than the East this week, but July peak intervals typically land mid-to-late month on hot weekday afternoons, so 4CP watch protocols should stay active. (Amperon)
• ORDC Pricing: No significant scarcity events reported. Analysts see limited scarcity risk for 2026 as solar and storage additions have grown reserve margins substantially; the ORDC adder contributed only $0.02/MWh to real-time prices across all of 2025. (Ascend Analytics, Potomac Economics)
• Grid Condition Alerts: No Weather Watch, Warning, or Conservation Alert found in effect for today. ERCOT’s TXANS system remains the channel to monitor as summer peaks build. (ERCOT TXANS)

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ISO-NE — Elevated

• Load Forecasting: Demand during the heat wave reached the highest levels of 2026 so far, near 26,000 MW against a summer forecast of 25,228 MW under normal weather and 26,473 MW under above-average temperatures. Roughly 29,000 MW was available to meet demand and reserves. (WWLP, ISO Newswire)
• Pricing Context: The region has seen real-time peaks above $1,100/MWh during June heat events, and this week’s stretch produced similar scarcity-adjacent pricing during evening peaks. FERC’s summer assessment flagged New England among the regions with the highest expected prices this summer. (EIA, FERC Summer Assessment)
• FCM: No new qualification events or de-list bid notices in the last 24 hours; capacity auction reform work continues in the background. (Competitive Energy Services)

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MISO — Watch

• Grid Conditions: MISO warned it could approach its all-time peak demand record during the heat wave and has operated under hot weather alerts and conservative operations in its central and north regions. Conditions are easing but July heat remains the key watch item. (ABC News, MISO Notifications)
• Planning Resource Auction: The 2026/27 PRA cleared summer capacity around $424.30/MW-day footprint-wide. Prices eased from last year’s record but structural tightness persists, keeping capacity cost exposure high for load in constrained zones. (Syso Technologies, RTO Insider)
• Zonal Pricing: Congestion costs continue trending upward (day-ahead congestion hit $1.3 billion in 2024, up 10 percent year over year), and heat-driven transfers east kept central-region constraints active this week. (Potomac Economics via MISO)

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CAISO — Normal

• Flex Alerts: No Flex Alerts issued or expected. The extreme heat is concentrated in the East; California conditions remain manageable. (CAISO)
• Renewable Curtailment: Midday solar oversupply continues at seasonal levels typical for early July; CAISO’s daily curtailment reports remain the best tracking source, with no unusual spikes flagged in the last 24 hours. (CAISO Curtailment Reports)
• NQC and RA: CAISO has posted its review of final 2026 resource adequacy compliance filings and deficiency determinations; 2026 Effective Flexible Capacity values are published. No new deficiency notices in the last 24 hours. (CAISO Notices)

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Cross-Market Watch

• Eastern Heat Wave: DOE has issued 34 Section 202(c) emergency orders across grid operators in 2026, spanning PJM, ERCOT, ISO-NE, NYISO, MISO, and Southeast utilities. This week’s orders authorized data-center curtailment and pollution-limit waivers in PJM through July 3. Heat is breaking this weekend, but another surge would reactivate the same playbook. (ABC News, MLQ News)
• FERC Large-Load Orders: FERC issued show-cause orders under FPA Section 206 to all six jurisdictional RTOs/ISOs, giving each 60 days to justify or reform tariff rules for interconnecting data centers and other large loads. This is the most consequential regulatory action of the summer for large-load customers. (FERC, White & Case)

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