Market status — July 9, 2026
Emergency
Elevated
Watch
Normal
PJM — Post-heat-wave 5CP assessment underway as loads return to seasonal norms
- 5CP Capacity Tags: Last week’s heat wave drove a preliminary hourly integrated peak of 161,910 MW on July 1, with July 2 forecast as high as 166,241 MW, near the 2006 record of 165,563 MW. Those evening hours are strong 5CP candidates, and tag-sensitive customers should treat July 1-2 as likely coincident-peak intervals, per PJM Inside Lines.
- Real-Time LMP: With the heat dome passed, system load has settled back to roughly 114 GW at midday and no unusual congestion or price spikes were flagged at Western Hub, NI Hub, or AEP-Dayton over the last 24 hours.
- Demand Response: No DR activity in the last 24 hours. PJM activated Pre-Emergency Demand Response RTO-wide on July 2 during emergency conditions, and the DOE Section 202(c) order authorizing maximum generation dispatch accompanied that event, per RTO Insider and Utility Dive.
NYISO — Quiet after the July 2 peak, but the thinnest summer margins in recent history warrant attention
- ICAP Tag Tracking: No new UCAP tag updates or auction results in the last 24 hours. The July 2 statewide peak of roughly 32,410 MW is the leading candidate for the summer coincident peak that will drive capacity tags, per NYISO.
- CBEP Program Alerts: No Customer Benefit Emergency Participation alerts or activations reported in the last 24 hours; the system rode through last week’s heat without emergency demand programs.
- Day-Ahead Pricing: No notable DA price signals or zone spreads today. Context worth holding onto: NYISO has warned that reliability margins this summer are the lowest in recent history, with a projected capacity margin of negative 1,679 MW under an extended 95-degree heat wave, per Utility Dive.
ERCOT — 4CP window open with no active grid alerts
- 4CP Season Tracking: July is an active 4CP month, and ERCOT publishes its monthly coincident peak calculations for each Distribution Service Provider on the 4CP program page. Late-afternoon intervals during the next heat build are the ones to watch.
- ORDC Pricing: No high ORDC adder events, reserve shortfalls, or scarcity pricing flagged in the last 24 hours.
- Grid Condition Alerts: No Weather Watch, Conservation Appeal, or other TXANS notifications currently active, per ERCOT TXANS. NERC has separately flagged a localized constraint in western ERCOT where load growth and transmission limits could bind during high-demand periods.
ISO-NE — Back to routine after exceptionally tight July 2 conditions
- FCM Tag Events: No new Forward Capacity Market qualification events, de-list bids, or show-cause notices in the last 24 hours.
- Capacity Market Integration: No new FCA results or capacity zone changes. NERC’s 2026 Summer Reliability Assessment lists NPCC-New England as an elevated-risk area where operating reserves could be insufficient under above-normal summer conditions, per NERC.
- Load Forecasting: The region peaked near 25,850 MW on July 2 under what the ISO called exceptionally tight operating conditions; this week’s outlook has returned to seasonal norms, per the ISO-NE seven-day capacity forecast.
MISO — Cleared the heat wave without emergency; quiet real-time conditions
- Zonal Pricing: No notable LMP spreads or binding constraints across Zones 4 through 7 in the last 24 hours. The conservative operations declaration issued during the pre-July 4 heat wave has ended, and MISO navigated the event without an emergency declaration, per RTO Insider.
- Planning Resource Auction: No new PRA developments or Zone 4 capacity concerns reported in the last 24 hours.
- Real-Time Settlements: Nothing unusual in settlement intervals. Structurally, the Independent Market Monitor is advocating for cutting transmission charges for storage resources, a proposal worth tracking for settlement impacts, per RTO Insider.
CAISO — Quiet conditions, routine midday solar curtailment
- Flex Alerts: No Flex Alerts issued or expected; no demand response call-outs in the last 24 hours.
- Renewable Curtailment: Structural midday solar curtailment continues at routine levels per the CAISO daily curtailment reports; no overgeneration emergency conditions.
- NQC Integration: No new Net Qualifying Capacity updates, resource adequacy filings, or RA deficiency notices in the last 24 hours.
Cross-Market Watch
- Federal emergency action: The DOE Section 202(c) order issued for PJM during last week’s heat dome, authorizing maximum fossil dispatch and last-resort curtailment of data centers and other large loads with backup generation, remains the most consequential federal action of the month, per RTO Insider.
- NERC summer outlook: The 2026 Summer Reliability Assessment shows aggregate peak demand up more than 11 GW year over year and flags NPCC-New England, MRO-SaskPower, and WECC-Northwest as elevated-risk areas, per NERC.
- Market structure: FERC denied a waiver for a 2 billion dollar gas-fired plant seeking PJM fast-track interconnection review, per Utility Dive, and MISO and PJM announced they will retire their coordinated transaction scheduling process after a decade of meager benefits, per RTO Insider.
HOW INTELLASTAR ENERGY ANALYST CAN HELP
Today’s conditions create specific opportunities — and risks — for your organization.
Last week’s near-record peaks likely locked in 5CP hours that will set your capacity charges for next year.
Intellastar Energy Analyst identifies the probable coincident-peak intervals from the July 1-2 event and quantifies what your load during those hours means for your future capacity costs. Verify your exposure now and have a curtailment plan ready before the next 5CP-caliber heat event.
New York’s thinnest reliability margins in recent history make your ICAP position and peak-hour behavior matter more than usual this summer.
Intellastar Energy Analyst tracks your load against the likely coincident-peak hours, including the July 2 candidate peak, so your capacity tags reflect deliberate strategy rather than chance. Get ahead of the next heat wave with alerts tuned to your accounts.
The July 4CP window is open, and a single late-afternoon interval can set your transmission charges for all of next year.
Intellastar Energy Analyst forecasts likely 4CP days and intervals so your facilities curtail only when it counts, not on every warm afternoon. Fewer false alarms means less operational disruption while still capturing the transmission savings.