Energy Market Daily Digest — August 20, 2026

Market status — August 20, 2026

---

PJM — 5CP window open, no alerts posted, but the peak bar has moved

• 5CP Capacity Tags: The 5CP window runs through September and two of the five coincident peaks are likely already set. PJM served an estimated all-time peak of 168,158 MW on July 2, above the prior summer record of 165,563 MW, per PJM operations updates. Anything in the mid-160s from here is a live tag candidate.
• Real-Time LMP: No emergency or Maximum Generation Alerts are posted for today. Current hub pricing and congestion should be checked against the PJM Data Viewer before locking in any economic curtailment decisions.
• Demand Response: No dispatch today. PJM is weighing new ride-through requirements for data centers and crypto load after roughly 3.8 GW tripped offline in Northern Virginia on July 22, the largest such event in its history (Utility Dive). Large flexible loads should expect more scrutiny of their behavior during disturbances.

---

NYISO — Quiet operations, structural planning is the story

• ICAP Tag Tracking: No off-cycle tag changes. The monthly and spot auction schedule is unchanged; confirm your obligation dates against the NYISO ICAP event calendar.
• CBEP Program Alerts: No Customer Benefit Emergency Participation activations reported in the last 24 hours.
• Day-Ahead Pricing: No unusual zonal spreads flagged. The longer-run signal remains NYISO’s warning of potential dispatchable capacity shortfalls over the next decade as load grows and older units retire (Utility Dive), which is what will eventually move ICAP prices.

---

ERCOT — 4CP season at its most dangerous stretch, plus a PUCT decision today

• 4CP Season Tracking: We are inside the June through September 4CP window, and August has historically produced the highest-value coincident peak of the four. No TXANS advisory or Weather Watch is currently posted (ERCOT TXANS), but late-afternoon intervals through month-end remain the ones to watch.
• ORDC Pricing: No reserve shortfall or high ORDC adder events reported in the last 24 hours. Reserves have been adequate; verify live conditions on the ERCOT grid conditions dashboard.
• Grid Condition Alerts: The active item is regulatory, not operational. ERCOT suspended the first deliverable of its Batch Zero large-load interconnection process under Market Notice M-A080326-01 after a state directive to verify data center requests, and said it would seek a good cause exception ahead of the PUCT’s August 20 open meeting. Roughly 474 GW sits in the queue, about 90 percent of it data centers (Utility Dive).

---

ISO-NE — No operational stress, transmission cost review filed at FERC

• FCM Tag Events: No qualification deadlines, de-list bid actions, or show-cause notices in the last 24 hours.
• Capacity Market Integration: The Capacity Auction Reforms project continues its shift from a forward annual construct to a prompt seasonal one for the commitment period starting June 1, 2028; the prompt and delay component was accepted by FERC in March (ISO-NE). Separately, ISO-NE has filed to review “asset condition” transmission projects, a category that has driven regional cost increases with limited outside scrutiny (Utility Dive).
• Load Forecasting: No tight-conditions notices posted. Typical summer peak for 2026 is forecast around 25,228 MW, and current outlooks sit comfortably below the late-June levels near 25,850 MW; check the seven-day capacity forecast for the week ahead.

---

MISO — Capacity costs down sharply, interregional transmission cost order lands

• Zonal Pricing: No emergency congestion events reported. Zonal separation remains the thing to monitor as a large new solar fleet reshapes intra-day flows across the North and Central regions.
• Planning Resource Auction: The 2026/27 PRA showed sufficient capacity, with summer prices falling to $424.30/MW-day in North and Central, $384.10 in Arkansas and Mississippi, and $412.10 in Louisiana and Texas, down from $666.50 region-wide a year earlier (MISO, Utility Dive). About 12.2 GW of accredited solar cleared, up 59 percent year over year.
• Real-Time Settlements: Nothing unusual flagged. On August 14 FERC approved MISO’s cost allocation framework for Tranche 2.1 projects built inside PJM’s footprint, roughly $904 million assigned to ComEd and $5.3 million to Duke Ohio, with no competitive solicitation required (Utility Dive). Expect this to show up in transmission charges over time.

---

CAISO — No Flex Alert, but the Western market design fight is heating up

• Flex Alerts: None issued or expected as of this morning. The 2026 summer assessment showed a surplus of about 2,547 MW above the one-in-ten reliability standard (CAISO), though sustained Western heat remains the swing factor.
• Renewable Curtailment: Mid-day solar curtailment continues as a structural, not emergency, condition. Track affected units on the curtailed and non-operational generators feed if you are optimizing load against negative pricing hours.
• NQC Integration: CPUC staff have challenged the load-balancing math underpinning CAISO’s Extended Day-Ahead Market (Utility Dive), and experts at a Western Market Seams workshop this week warned that existing remedial action schemes do not account for evolving south-to-north flows (Utility Dive). Both feed directly into how RA and NQC values get counted going forward.

---

Cross-Market Watch — Large load policy is the common thread

• Large Load Policy: Three markets moved on data centers in the same window: ERCOT paused Batch Zero pending a state verification review, PJM is drafting ride-through expectations after the July 22 trip event, and Pennsylvania is offering permitting incentives to data centers that bring their own generation (Utility Dive). Interconnection certainty is now a real planning risk, not a background concern.
• Federal Actions: The Department of Energy has cancelled three National Interest Electric Transmission Corridors (Utility Dive), which narrows the federal siting path for several long-haul projects and pushes more weight onto regional planning processes.
• Weather: No multi-ISO heat emergency in effect today. Peak-season exposure remains concentrated in ERCOT 4CP and PJM 5CP intervals through the end of September.

HOW INTELLASTAR ENERGY ANALYST CAN HELP

Today’s conditions create specific opportunities — and risks — for your organization.

---