Energy Market Daily Digest — August 21, 2026

Market status — August 21, 2026

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PJM — 5CP window still open, but the summer peak is likely already behind us

• 5CP Capacity Tags: PJM set a preliminary all-time peak of roughly 168,158 MW in the 5-6 p.m. hour on July 2 during the late-June/early-July heat event, well above the approximately 156,400 MW it forecast for the season. With the 5CP window running through September, that July interval is very likely to anchor this year’s tag set, but late-August and September heat can still displace a lower-ranked interval (PJM Inside Lines).
• Real-Time LMP: No emergency pricing conditions or DOE 202(c) orders are in effect today. The last extraordinary pricing period came in early July, when DOE ordered PJM to maximize fossil output and approved curtailment of large loads with backup generation as a last resort before voltage reduction (Utility Dive).
• Demand Response: PJM holds roughly 7,800 MW of contracted DR for summer 2026 and delivered preliminary performance of about 6,113 MW on July 2 and 5,037 MW on July 3. No dispatch events are active today (PJM).
• Watch item: PJM is weighing expanded reliability requirements for computational loads after roughly 3,800 MW of Virginia data center load tripped offline on July 22, the largest such event in PJM history. NERC must finalize registry criteria and initial standards for these loads by December 31 (Utility Dive).

NYISO — Summer capability period running on a thin margin, no alerts today

• ICAP Tag Tracking: The Summer 2026 Capability Period is in its final full month. NYISO entered the season with 34,615 MW of resources against a 31,578 MW forecast peak and a 2,620 MW reserve obligation, one of the narrowest margins in recent memory. Final 2026-2027 capacity accreditation factors and peak load windows are already published, so tag exposure is being set by actual summer coincident hours now (NYISO).
• CBEP Program Alerts: No Customer Benefit Emergency Participation activations are posted. The last statewide demand-side call came during the early-July heat wave, when NYISO projected a 32,410 MW peak and Con Edison issued a customer conservation appeal (Utility Dive).
• Day-Ahead Pricing: No zonal dislocations flagged. NYISO’s own summer assessment shows the downstate zones carry the margin risk: a three-day 95-degree heat event models to a negative 1,679 MW capacity margin, widening to negative 3,370 MW at 98 degrees. Worth keeping in view for any remaining August heat (Utility Dive).

ERCOT — 4CP window open through September while large-load queue policy is in flux

• 4CP Season Tracking: The June-through-September 4CP window is active, and August and September historically deliver the most expensive coincident peak intervals of the year. ERCOT posts monthly 4CP calculations by distribution service provider, and August intervals are still in play for the rest of the month (ERCOT).
• ORDC Pricing and Grid Alerts: ERCOT has not issued a Weather Watch, Watch, Warning, Emergency or Conservation Alert this summer. Its most recent Weather Watch was January 21, and no news release has been posted since June 18, which is consistent with a season running without reserve shortfalls to date (ERCOT).
• Policy Watch: ERCOT opened its Batch Zero large-load study process on August 3 with roughly 205 GW of requested load, and Governor Abbott halted the batch studies process the following day. The outcome shapes how quickly new large loads and their co-located generation reach the grid, and by extension future 4CP load shapes (RTO Insider).

ISO-NE — Quiet operations; the action is in capacity market redesign and filings

• FCM Tag Events: No qualification disputes, de-list actions or show-cause notices are pending publicly. The Capacity Auction Reforms project continues to move the region from a forward annual auction to a prompt seasonal auction targeted for June 2028, with the accreditation piece expected to be filed at FERC in Q4 2026 (ISO-NE).
• Capacity Market Integration: ISO-NE outlined its proposed treatment of large loads to NEPOOL on August 18, its answer to FERC’s June show-cause order. Separately, a Canadian clean energy agreement reported August 19 could increase Quebec supply into New England and shift import economics (RTO Insider).
• Load Forecasting: No tight-conditions notices are posted for the week ahead. The season’s stress point remains the early-July event, when ISO-NE forecast 25,850 MW and warned of exceptionally tight operating conditions; current conditions are materially calmer (ISO-NE).

MISO — Capacity cleared far cheaper this year; congestion is the standing issue

• Planning Resource Auction: The 2026/27 PRA cleared with sufficient capacity and sharply lower prices. Summer fell from $666.50/MW-day region-wide to $424.30/MW-day in North and Central, $384.10 in Arkansas and Mississippi and $412.10 in Louisiana and Texas, with annualized zonal prices in a $116 to $126/MW-day band versus $212 to $217 a year ago (MISO).
• Zonal Pricing: No shortage pricing or emergency declarations posted. Roughly 12.2 GW of accredited solar cleared the auction, up 59% year over year, which is steadily reshaping midday zonal spreads and the direction of Midwest-South flows (Utility Dive).
• Real-Time Settlements: Nothing anomalous reported. MISO’s Independent Market Monitor issued market improvement recommendations on August 5 covering transmission congestion, the Midwest-South link, market-to-market coordination and post-disturbance price settlements, which is the file to watch for settlement-side rule change (MISO).

CAISO — Structural midday curtailment continues; EDAM data under regulator scrutiny

• Flex Alerts: None issued or forecast. CAISO entered the summer with about 2,547 MW of surplus above standard planning targets, following roughly 2,127 MW of new RA-eligible nameplate capacity added between September 2025 and April 2026 plus a further tranche expected by June 30 (CAISO).
• Renewable Curtailment: Midday solar and wind curtailment remains a structural daily feature rather than an event. Daily and hourly curtailment volumes by type are published in CAISO’s current-day report, which is the cleanest read on how deep the belly of the duck runs this week (CAISO).
• NQC and Market Integration: CPUC Energy Division staff filed comments on August 12 questioning CAISO’s EDAM load-adjustment math, including a 592.50 MW adjustment on June 11 and a 3,590 MW adjustment on August 4. California’s Six Cities followed on August 13 asking for ongoing cost-benefit analysis. Portland General Electric joins EDAM October 1 (Utility Dive).

Cross-Market Watch — Large-load tariff reform is the single biggest file across all six ISOs

• FERC show-cause orders: On June 18 FERC issued tailored Federal Power Act section 206 show-cause orders to all six jurisdictional grid operators, giving each 60 days to justify or reform tariffs governing large-load interconnection across five reform categories, including co-location, cost-shift prevention and new flexible-load transmission services (FERC).
• Every ISO asked for more time: All six operators requested an additional three months, reported August 4. PJM, CAISO and ISO-NE have each since put partial proposals in front of stakeholders, so the compliance filings that will define co-located load and flexible-load service are landing this fall rather than this month (RTO Insider).
• Reliability standards for computational load: NERC’s Level 3 alert on data center load losses remains the governing directive, with registry criteria and initial standards due by December 31 and a broader standards plan due in March. Ride-through requirements are deferred to next year (Utility Dive).
• PJM governance: FERC issued a notice for dispute resolution services proceedings on PJM governance and stakeholder processes on August 10, following its July 30 invitation for public comment after the governance reforms conference (FERC).

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