Energy Market Daily Digest — August 23, 2026

Market status — August 23, 2026

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PJM — 5CP window still open, but the summer peak is likely already behind us

• 5CP Capacity Tags: The 5CP window runs June through September, and PJM’s all-time peak of roughly 168,158 MW was set July 2 during the record heat dome, well above the 156,400 MW summer forecast. A second heat stretch on July 15 produced a preliminary 159,021 MW hourly peak. Both days are near-certain 5CP hours, so late-August load would need to be extraordinary to displace them (PJM Inside Lines, summer outlook).
• Real-Time LMP: No emergency pricing or scarcity events reported in the past 24 hours. Attention has shifted to committee work, including a Market Implementation Committee endorsement of a PJM and Market Monitor proposal barring affiliated fuel quotes in fuel cost policies.
• Demand Response: PJM carries roughly 7,800 MW of contracted demand response and recorded about 6,113 MW of performance on July 2 and 5,037 MW on July 3 (PJM DR fact sheet). No dispatch events today. PJM is separately weighing tighter rules on when large loads may disconnect, after roughly 3.8 GW of data centers shifted to backup generation following a 230-kV line trip in northern Virginia.

NYISO — Thin reliability margin remains the defining story

• ICAP Tag Tracking: Monthly spot auction activity is running on its normal schedule with no off-cycle parameter changes announced. NYISO’s summer assessment put 34,615 MW of resources against a 31,578 MW forecast peak, a 417 MW baseline margin that it described as the narrowest in recent history (NYISO).
• Emergency Program Alerts: No Special Case Resource or Emergency Demand Response Program activations in the past 24 hours. Both programs remain the operator’s primary reliability-based demand-side tools heading into the final weeks of the capability period (NYISO demand response).
• Day-Ahead Pricing: No scarcity or notable zonal dislocation reported. Structurally, NYISO continues to flag New York City and Long Island as the zones where transmission constraints and aging generation drive the widest forward spreads (Utility Dive).

ERCOT — Six straight record-setting August days put 4CP intervals in play

• 4CP Season Tracking: August is the final month of the June through September 4CP window, and ERCOT logged consecutive August peak records on the 15th, 16th, 17th, 18th, 19th and 20th, topping out at a preliminary 90,353 MW on August 20 against 89,725 MW the prior day. The July 22 reading of 91,089 MW remains the summer high (ERCOT peak demand records, 4CP calculations).
• ORDC Pricing: No reserve shortfall, Weather Watch, or Conservation Appeal is posted as of this morning. With load repeatedly clearing 88 GW on consecutive afternoons, ORDC adder risk stays concentrated in the 4:00 to 6:00 p.m. block, which is also where the August 4CP interval will almost certainly land.
• Structural: ERCOT suspended the first deliverable of its Batch Zero large-load interconnection study on August 3 following the governor’s directive to verify and audit every data center in the queue, and now targets December 10 to complete that audit (RTO Insider, Utility Dive).

ISO-NE — Quiet operations, active capacity market redesign

• FCM Tag Events: No qualification deadlines, de-list bid windows, or show-cause notices are open today. FCA 19 remains pushed to February 2028 while the region builds out the prompt and seasonal framework (ISO-NE capacity auction reforms).
• Capacity Market Integration: FERC accepted the first phase of the redesign, Capacity Auction Reform: Prompt and Deactivation, in March under Docket ER26-925. That replaces the three-year-forward auction with a prompt auction held one month ahead of the commitment period, with the second phase expected to be filed in Q4 (Utility Dive).
• Load Forecasting: ISO-NE entered the summer expecting sufficient supply, though NERC’s 2026 Summer Reliability Assessment named parts of New England as an elevated-risk area under extreme, wide-area heat (ISO-NE seasonal outlook, NERC).

MISO — Capacity costs down sharply, demand-side rules tightening

• Zonal Pricing: No congestion event or unusual zonal dislocation reported in the past 24 hours. The Regulating Reserve Demand Curve price for August is set at $100.78/MW (MISO).
• Planning Resource Auction: The 2026/27 auction cleared with sufficient capacity and a summer reserve margin 3.5 points above the 7.9% reliability target. Summer prices fell to $424.30/MW-day in North and Central, $384.10 in Arkansas and Mississippi, and $412.10 in Louisiana and Texas, down from a uniform $666.50 (MISO, Utility Dive). Zone 4 shows no separate shortfall this cycle.
• Real-Time Settlements: Nothing anomalous in settlement intervals. Members this month backed stricter load-modifying resource performance and registration requirements, which tie accreditation to submitted availability during Capacity At Risk Hours (MISO DR participation rules).

CAISO — No Flex Alert, but midday oversupply remains a daily feature

• Flex Alerts: No Flex Alert or emergency notification is active. CAISO’s summer assessment showed a 2,547 MW surplus against the 1-in-10 loss-of-load planning target, supported by roughly 2,127 MW of new RA-eligible capacity added through April and a further 6,194 MW expected by end of June (CAISO).
• Renewable Curtailment: Curtailment totaled 600,081 MWh in June and the system set a 23,218 MW solar record on June 15 at 11:45 a.m. Midday reductions remain structural rather than event-driven; check the daily report for today’s volumes (CAISO key statistics, daily curtailment reports).
• NQC Integration: The 2026 NQC and Effective Flexible Capacity lists are final for the compliance year, and CAISO has published its review of final 2026 RA compliance filings and deficiency determinations. Demand response NQC values still require re-authorization by the local regulatory authority before listing (NQC notice, RA deficiency review).

Cross-Market Watch — Large-load reform is the common thread

• FERC show cause orders: In June, FERC issued Federal Power Act section 206 show cause orders to PJM, MISO, SPP, CAISO, ISO-NE and NYISO covering large loads, defined as peak demand above 50 MW connecting above 69 kV. The orders target transmission study process, cost-shift protection, co-location and behind-the-meter generation, flexible-load service, and studies of generation serving electrically proximate load (FERC).
• Compliance timing: Every ISO and RTO has asked FERC for an additional three months to respond, so the original 60-day compliance window that would have closed this month is now in flux. Analysts tracking flexible-load tariff design should watch the docket for extension rulings (RTO Insider).
• Seasonal risk: NERC’s 2026 Summer Reliability Assessment places the greatest cumulative risk in July and August and names wide-area heat as a primary reliability risk, alongside generator outages and fuel supply. Elevated-risk areas include parts of New England, the Northwest, SaskPower’s territory and a local area in West Texas (NERC SRA 2026).

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