Energy Market Daily Digest — July 10, 2026

Market status — July 10, 2026

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PJM — Recovering from a record-setting heat event; DOE emergency authority still in force

• 5CP Capacity Tags: The late-June through July 4 heat event pushed PJM load to near-record territory, with a forecast of 166,241 MW on July 2 against the 2006 all-time summer record of 165,563 MW. Hours from that window are strong candidates to set 2026 5CP determinants, so any load reductions taken then likely locked in capacity tag value, per PJM Inside Lines.
• Real-Time LMP: Spot prices spiked to roughly $600/MWh in Virginia during the heat event, with sustained congestion into mid-Atlantic load pockets; prices have eased this week as temperatures moderated, per Utility Dive.
• Demand Response: PJM activated Pre-Emergency Demand Response on July 2 and operated under DOE 202(c) emergency orders authorizing maximum generation output and, as a last resort, curtailment of data centers and other large loads with backup generation. That emergency authority framework remains a live factor for the balance of the summer, per Utility Dive and RTO Insider.

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NYISO — Thin reliability margins remain the structural story after conservation appeals

• ICAP Tag Tracking: No new ICAP auction results or tag period changes in the last 24 hours. The structural backdrop remains NYISO’s warning that under an extended heat wave averaging 95 degrees, the state’s capacity margin turns negative at minus 1,679 MW absent emergency actions, per Utility Dive.
• CBEP Program Alerts: No CBEP activation reported in the last 24 hours. Con Edison did issue customer conservation appeals during the early-July heat event, asking customers to limit air conditioning and appliance use between 2 and 10 p.m., per Utility Dive.
• Day-Ahead Pricing: New York City prices roughly doubled during the heat event; zone spreads have narrowed as temperatures eased, but NYC and Long Island remain the zones to watch on any renewed heat.

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ERCOT — Inside the 4CP window with modest near-term shortage risk

• 4CP Season Tracking: The June-September 4CP window is active and July afternoon peaks are in play; summer peak load is projected between roughly 90,500 MW and 98,000 MW. Note the PUCT is developing a rulemaking to replace 4CP with a 12CP methodology in 30-minute intervals, per ERCOT and RTO Insider.
• ORDC Pricing: No high ORDC events in the last 24 hours. ERCOT’s July outlook puts the highest hourly shortage risk at Hour Ending 21:00 with only a 0.21% probability of an EEA declaration, driven by the evening solar ramp-down, per the ERCOT July MORA.
• Grid Condition Alerts: No Weather Watch, Watch, Warning, or Conservation Alert currently in effect; TXANS notifications are quiet, per ERCOT TXANS.

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ISO-NE — Evening peaks tightened sharply during the heat event; capacity market quiet

• FCM Tag Events: No Forward Capacity Market qualification events, de-list bids, or show-cause notices in the last 24 hours.
• Capacity Market Integration: Wholesale spot prices in New England leapt roughly 243% during the early-July heat event, underscoring how quickly evening scarcity translates into settlement exposure, per Energy Central.
• Load Forecasting: ISO-NE projected a 25,850 MW peak around 7 p.m. and warned of “exceptionally tight operating conditions” at the height of the heat event; the seven-day outlook has since moderated toward seasonal norms, per Utility Dive.

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MISO — Stable operations after the heat wave; capacity fundamentals still tight on paper

• Zonal Pricing: No notable zone spreads or transmission constraints in the last 24 hours. MISO navigated the heat wave that blanketed nearly its entire footprint before July 4 without emergency declarations, per RTO Insider.
• Planning Resource Auction: No new PRA activity. The 2025/26 auction’s $666.50/MW-day summer clearing price and thin reserve margins (10.1% north/central, 8.7% south) remain the backdrop, though MISO’s resource adequacy tone has turned optimistic on record annual resource additions, per RTO Insider and RTO Insider.
• Real-Time Settlements: Nothing unusual in settlement intervals. Structurally, MISO and PJM are moving to end Coordinated Transaction Scheduling after meager benefits, which will change seam-trading dynamics, per RTO Insider.

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CAISO — Quiet conditions and a comfortable summer supply cushion

• Flex Alerts: No Flex Alerts issued or expected; no demand response call-outs in the last 24 hours.
• Renewable Curtailment: Routine midday solar oversupply continues but no exceptional curtailment events reported this week.
• NQC Integration: CAISO’s 2026 summer assessment shows a 2,547 MW surplus above the once-in-ten-years reliability standard, with roughly 3,379 MW of additional emergency supply available through the Strategic Reliability Reserve and import assistance, per California ISO.

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Cross-Market Watch — Record output week; federal emergency posture carries forward

• Record Generation: U.S. electric output hit a record 100,996 GWh during the week of June 28 through July 4 as eastern heat drove air conditioning demand to seasonal highs, surpassing the prior record set in July 2022, per RTO Insider.
• Federal Actions: DOE’s 202(c) emergency orders for PJM, covering maximum generation and large-load curtailment authority, set a precedent that could extend to other regions if heat returns; FERC’s summer assessment already flagged tight conditions across eastern markets, per FERC.
• Price Outlook: Despite early-July spikes, EIA still projects wholesale power prices roughly 8% lower this summer overall versus last year, per Utility Dive.

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