Market status — July 11, 2026
Emergency
Elevated
Watch
Normal
PJM — Post-heat-dome recovery with likely 5CP hours already on the books
- 5CP Capacity Tags: The early-July heat dome pushed PJM to a preliminary hourly integrated peak of 161,910 MW on July 1, with July 2 load forecast near the all-time summer record of 165,563 MW. Those late-afternoon hours are strong candidates to lock in as 5CP intervals; loads this weekend have moderated, but any return of extreme heat remains a tag risk, per PJM Inside Lines.
- Real-Time LMP: No new price spikes reported in the last 24 hours. The stress period was July 1-3, when PJM operated under hot weather, maximum generation, and load management alerts and a DOE emergency order to maximize output, per RTO Insider.
- Demand Response: PJM activated Pre-Emergency Demand Response on the afternoon of July 2 to shore up evening reserves; DR was credited with keeping the peak under the 2006 record, per Utility Dive. No dispatches reported since.
NYISO — Thin margins and a key import line still offline
- ICAP Tag Tracking: No new UCAP tag updates or auction results in the last 24 hours. The early-July heat wave peak (projected 32,410 MW) remains the likely capacity tag driver for the summer period so far, per Utility Dive.
- CBEP Program Alerts: No emergency participation activations reported in the last 24 hours. NYISO has warned that reliability margins this summer are the lowest in recent history, so watch for alerts if heat rebuilds.
- Day-Ahead Pricing: The Champlain Hudson Power Express remains out of service after tripping offline on July 4, removing up to 1,250 MW of hydropower imports into New York City and supporting wider downstate zone spreads, per RTO Insider.
ERCOT — 4CP window active; no alerts in effect today
- 4CP Season Tracking: The June-September 4CP window is active. ERCOT projects summer 2026 peak load of roughly 90,500 to 98,000 MW against the standing all-time record of 85,508 MW, so any sustained triple-digit heat creates 4CP-setting potential on weekday late afternoons, per ERCOT’s summer outlook.
- ORDC Pricing: No high ORDC adder events or reserve shortfalls reported in the last 24 hours.
- Grid Condition Alerts: No Weather Watch, Conservation Appeal, or emergency notice currently posted on ERCOT’s TXANS notification page. Central US heat persisting, so conditions warrant monitoring into next week.
ISO-NE — Quiet operations; capacity market redesign is the story
- FCM Tag Events: No qualification events or show-cause notices in the last 24 hours. FCA 19 remains delayed while ISO-NE implements its capacity auction reform, moving to a prompt, seasonal auction design that FERC accepted on March 30, 2026, per ISO-NE.
- Capacity Market Integration: ISO-NE has cut its 10-year load forecast for the third straight year, citing reduced federal support for heating and transportation electrification, which will flow into future capacity requirements, per RTO Insider.
- Load Forecasting: New England loads have eased since the July 1-3 heat event; no unusual peak conditions expected today.
MISO — Stable after clean heat-wave performance
- Zonal Pricing: No notable zone spreads or constraint events reported in the last 24 hours. MISO came through the pre-July 4 heat wave without an emergency declaration, per RTO Insider.
- Planning Resource Auction: The 2026/27 PRA cleared with sufficient capacity in all zones, with summer prices around $384 to $424/MW-day, down roughly $200 from last year as about 12.2 GW of accredited solar cleared, per Utility Dive. No new Zone 4 concerns.
- Real-Time Settlements: Nothing unusual reported. Note MISO’s simplified Max Gen structure (three steps, Max Gen Alert removed) took effect June 1, 2026, which changes how emergency signals will read this summer, per MISO.
CAISO — Comfortable supply cushion; no alerts
- Flex Alerts: No Flex Alerts issued or expected in the last 24 hours. CAISO’s 2026 summer assessment shows a 2,547 MW surplus above the 1-in-10 reliability standard, with roughly 3,379 MW of emergency reserves available if extreme heat hits, per CAISO.
- Renewable Curtailment: No notable overgeneration event reported today; midsummer load levels are absorbing solar output, and curtailment pressure remains a spring and fall phenomenon.
- NQC Integration: No new NQC updates or RA deficiency notices in the last 24 hours; 2026 RA compliance review activity continues on the standard cadence.
Cross-Market Watch
- Record national output: US electric generation hit a record 100,996 GWh in the week of June 28 to July 4 as eastern heat drove air conditioning demand to seasonal highs; loads have since eased across the East, per RTO Insider.
- Large load regulation: FERC has ordered all six RTOs/ISOs to justify or reform their tariffs for data centers and other large loads, an action with capacity and cost-allocation implications across every market covered here, per FERC.
- Seasonal outlook: FERC’s 2026 summer assessment flags above-normal temperatures through September; the early-July heat dome validated the tight-margin concerns for PJM and NYISO in particular.
HOW INTELLASTAR ENERGY ANALYST CAN HELP
Today’s conditions create specific opportunities — and risks — for your organization.
Last week’s near-record peaks likely set 5CP hours that will drive your capacity charges for the next planning year.
Intellastar Energy Analyst tracks PJM load against 5CP thresholds daily and alerts your team before likely coincident peak hours, so curtailment happens when it counts. Post-event analysis confirms which hours hit and what your updated capacity tag exposure looks like.
With the state’s thinnest reliability margins in recent history and a major import line offline, downstate price and capacity risk is real.
Intellastar Energy Analyst monitors zone-level day-ahead spreads and your ICAP tag position so you know exactly how transmission outages and heat events translate into cost. When margins tighten, you get clear guidance on load reduction windows.
The 4CP window is open and this summer’s forecast peak runs well above the all-time record, so every hot weekday afternoon is a potential tag-setter.
Intellastar Energy Analyst forecasts likely 4CP days across June through September and flags the specific intervals to curtail, protecting your transmission cost allocation for the following year. You focus on operations; we watch the peaks.