Energy Market Daily Digest — July 12, 2026

Market status — July 12, 2026

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PJM — Recovering from early-July emergency conditions; 5CP risk remains live

• 5CP Capacity Tags: The June 30 to July 5 heat dome almost certainly locked in at least one coincident peak hour, with PJM forecasting load near its all-time summer record of 165,563 MW on July 2. Peak season continues through September, so additional 5CP hours remain in play if another heat event materializes, per PJM Inside Lines.
• Real-Time LMP: Spot prices reached roughly $600/MWh in Virginia during the heat event before moderating this past week. EIA expects wholesale prices to average about $45/MWh this summer, roughly 8 percent below last year, though it cautions further heat waves could reignite spikes, per Utility Dive.
• Demand Response: PJM activated Pre-Emergency Load Management across multiple zones on July 2 and secured a DOE 202c emergency order allowing curtailment of large loads with backup generation as a last resort. That order framework remains a notable precedent for the rest of the season, per RTO Insider.

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NYISO — Thin summer margins with CHPE restored after July 4 trip

• ICAP Tag Tracking: No new UCAP tag updates or auction results in the last 24 hours. Capability-period peaks set during the early-July heat event will drive next year’s tags, so participants should confirm their metered performance during the July 1 to 3 window.
• CBEP Program Alerts: No active emergency participation alerts today. During the heat wave, Con Edison asked customers to limit air conditioning and appliance use between 2 p.m. and 10 p.m., and NYISO has warned summer reliability margins are the lowest in recent history, per Utility Dive.
• Day-Ahead Pricing: New York City prices roughly doubled during the heat event and have since eased. The Champlain Hudson Power Express is back in service after tripping offline July 4, restoring a key source of downstate supply, per RTO Insider.

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ERCOT — Quiet operations inside the active 4CP window

• 4CP Season Tracking: The June through September 4CP window is active, and mid-July afternoons are historically prime candidates for the July coincident peak. Transmission-cost-exposed loads should treat hot weekday afternoons in the 4 p.m. to 6 p.m. range as watch periods, per ERCOT dashboards.
• ORDC Pricing: No significant ORDC adder events or reserve shortfalls reported in the last 24 hours. ERCOT navigated the recent heat without conservation requests, supported by large additions of renewables and battery storage, per Utility Dive.
• Grid Condition Alerts: No Weather Watch, Warning, or Conservation Alert currently posted on ERCOT’s TXANS notification system.

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ISO-NE — Conditions normalized after tight early-July operations

• FCM Tag Events: No new qualification events or de-list activity in the last 24 hours. ISO-NE’s proposed shift from the Forward Capacity Market to a prompt, seasonal auction remains the structural story to track for capacity-tagged loads, per Utility Dive.
• Load Forecasting: Load has returned to seasonal norms after the region hit roughly 25,850 MW with exceptionally tight operating conditions on July 2, when wholesale spot prices jumped about 243 percent, per Utility Dive. The 2026 CELT forecast puts typical-weather summer peak at 25,228 MW, so the region has already brushed its above-normal planning case this season.

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MISO — Stable footing after clean heat-wave performance

• Zonal Pricing: No notable zonal LMP spreads or binding constraints reported in the last 24 hours. MISO managed the footprint-wide heat wave leading into July 4 without emergency declarations, per RTO Insider.
• Planning Resource Auction: The 2026/27 PRA, cleared in April, showed sufficient capacity at regional, subregional, and zonal levels, with summer pricing reflecting the tightest seasonal balance, per MISO. No Zone 4 shortfall concerns are active.
• Real-Time Settlements: Nothing unusual flagged in settlement intervals. The Independent Market Monitor recently floated six market improvement ideas, worth tracking for future settlement and pricing design changes, per RTO Insider.

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CAISO — Comfortable surplus, no conservation calls

• Flex Alerts: No Flex Alerts issued or expected in the near term. CAISO’s 2026 summer assessment shows a surplus of roughly 2,547 MW above the one-in-ten-year reliability standard, per CAISO.
• Renewable Curtailment: Curtailment is past its spring seasonal peak as summer cooling load absorbs midday solar. The structural trend remains upward, with 3.4 million MWh of wind and solar curtailed in 2024, up 29 percent year over year, per Utility Dive.
• NQC Integration: The 2026 Effective Flexible Capacity values for RA resources are posted, and about 1,354 MW of new battery capacity is expected to reach commercial operation in the near term, per CAISO notices.

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Cross-Market Watch

• Post-heat-wave reset: The eastern half of the country is one week past its first major heat wave of the summer, which drove U.S. weekly generation to a record 100,996 GWh over June 28 to July 4. Markets have since cooled, but EIA warns additional heat waves could still cause price spikes, per Utility Dive.
• FERC and NERC: FERC approved NERC’s new ride-through reliability standards for inverter-based resources on July 2, requiring wind, solar, and storage to stay connected during voltage and frequency disturbances, per FERC. NERC has also issued a Level 3 Alert on large-load interconnection challenges, per NERC.
• Demand growth: NERC’s summer assessment shows aggregate peak demand up more than 11 GW year over year, with data center load projected to grow from 44 GW to 55 GW in 2026, keeping structural pressure on capacity prices across PJM, MISO, and ERCOT.

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