Market status — July 13, 2026
Emergency
Elevated
Watch
Normal
PJM — Post-heat-wave review lands as 5CP season stays live
- 5CP Capacity Tags: The June 29 – July 5 heat wave drove a record 168 GW unrestricted peak, making those hours strong candidates for 2026 5CP determination. Loads have moderated this week, but the 5CP window remains open through September, per RTO Insider.
- Real-Time LMP: No notable spikes, congestion, or negative pricing reported at Western Hub, NI Hub, or AEP-Dayton over the past 24 hours; conditions have eased since the early-July Hot Weather Alerts described in PJM’s operations updates.
- Demand Response: PJM announced Sunday that no Performance Assessment Interval occurred during the heat wave despite pre-emergency load management dispatch and a DOE order to maximize generation, so no Capacity Performance penalties or bonuses will result, per RTO Insider.
NYISO — Routine summer capability period activity
- ICAP Tag Tracking: Monthly and spot auctions are proceeding routinely for the summer capability period, with no UCAP tag updates or tag period changes announced; auction summaries are posted on the NYISO ICAP market page.
- CBEP Program Alerts: No emergency participation alerts or activations in the past 24 hours; Con Edison’s July 2 conservation appeal tied to the heat wave has expired, per RTO Insider’s heat wave coverage.
- Day-Ahead Pricing: No unusual NYC, Long Island, or Capital zone spreads flagged; day-ahead prices have retreated with milder temperatures following the early-July demand surge.
ERCOT — 4CP window active with early-evening reserve risk
- 4CP Season Tracking: July is an active 4CP month, and ERCOT’s July resource adequacy outlook puts the highest reserve-shortage risk in the early evening, peaking at hour ending 9 p.m. CT, per the July MORA. High-load afternoons this week merit close watching for 4CP interval risk.
- ORDC Pricing: No high ORDC adder events, VOLL approaches, or reserve shortfalls reported in the past 24 hours; current reserves are visible on the grid conditions dashboard.
- Grid Condition Alerts: No Weather Watch, Conservation Appeal, or emergency notice currently in effect through TXANS.
ISO-NE — Conditions ease after early-July heat
- FCM Tag Events: No new qualification events, de-list bids, or show-cause notices in the past 24 hours; capacity market activity remains structural, per the Forward Capacity Market page.
- Capacity Market Integration: ISO-NE has trimmed its 10-year load forecast for the third straight year, citing reduced federal support for electrification, a factor for long-run capacity positions, per RTO Insider.
- Load Forecasting: Peak loads have receded from the roughly 25,850 MW heat wave peak and exceptionally tight conditions of early July; this week’s outlook is near seasonal norms on the seven-day capacity forecast.
MISO — Clean bill of health after heat wave operations
- Zonal Pricing: No notable LMP spreads or binding transmission constraints reported across Zones 4 through 7 in the past 24 hours as temperatures moderate.
- Planning Resource Auction: The 2026/27 PRA cleared around $400/MW-day for summer, roughly $200 below last year, with sufficient capacity at regional, subregional, and zonal levels including Zone 4, per RTO Insider and MISO’s results posting.
- Real-Time Settlements: MISO reported smooth operations through the recent heat wave with no unusual settlement intervals or make-whole activity flagged, per RTO Insider.
CAISO — Healthy surplus and no alerts
- Flex Alerts: No Flex Alerts issued or expected in the near term, and no demand response call-outs in the past 24 hours.
- Renewable Curtailment: Structural midday solar curtailment continues at seasonal levels, but summer air-conditioning load is absorbing most output; no overgeneration event flagged in the current-day curtailment report.
- NQC Integration: No new NQC updates or RA deficiency notices; the 2026 Summer Loads and Resources Assessment shows a 2,547 MW surplus against the 1-in-10 planning target.
Cross-Market Watch — Large load rules move to center stage
- Regulatory: FERC has ordered all six RTOs and ISOs to justify or reform their tariffs for data centers and other large loads, per FERC, while NERC issued a Level 3 alert and reliability guideline on large load integration challenges, per NERC. Expect compliance filings to shape interconnection economics across every market this year.
- Weather and fuel: The late-June heat dome has broken, and the DOE emergency generation order covering PJM has lapsed; federal assessments still expect above-normal heat risk through August, per FERC’s summer assessment.
HOW INTELLASTAR ENERGY ANALYST CAN HELP
Today’s conditions create specific opportunities — and risks — for your organization.
The record heat wave likely locked in several 2026 5CP hours, and your next capacity tag may already be taking shape.
Intellastar Energy Analyst tracks PJM system load in real time and flags likely coincident peak hours before they hit, so your facilities curtail when it actually counts. We also help you verify whether the June 29 – July 5 peaks will define your capacity obligation and what that means for next year’s bill.
ERCOT’s 4CP window is open, and the July peak interval that sets your 2027 transmission charges could land any hot afternoon.
Intellastar Energy Analyst monitors ERCOT load forecasts daily and alerts your team on likely 4CP days, with early-evening risk windows called out in advance. That turns a once-a-month guessing game into a manageable curtailment plan.
Quiet NYISO conditions are the right time to review your ICAP position before the next peak stretch arrives.
Intellastar Energy Analyst audits your UCAP tags and capacity cost exposure against the latest auction results, so surprises do not show up on next year’s invoices. A calm week is the cheapest time to find and fix a mistagged position.