Market status — July 14, 2026
PJMELEVATED
NYISOWATCH
ERCOTWATCH
ISO-NEWATCH
MISOWATCH
CAISONORMAL
Emergency
Elevated
Watch
Normal
PJM — Hot Weather Alert in effect through July 17; two potential 5CP days midweek
- 5CP Capacity Tags: PJM issued a Hot Weather Alert for the full RTO covering July 14–17, with forecast peaks of 151,105 MW today, 162,699 MW Wednesday and 160,893 MW Thursday. With the all-time record of 168,158 MW set July 2, Wednesday and Thursday are strong 5CP candidate days; curtailable load should be positioned for late-afternoon hours.
- Real-Time LMP: No notable spikes or congestion events reported in the last 24 hours, but expect tightening at Western Hub and AEP-Dayton as loads climb into the low-160 GW range midweek. Early-July heat drove record loads and tested the system.
- Demand Response: No emergency DR dispatch currently in effect. PJM retains recent experience with DOE emergency authority to curtail data centers and large loads exercised during the July 2 heat dome; DR resources should stay dispatch-ready through Thursday.
NYISO — Heat building into New York alongside the PJM alert; watch downstate day-ahead premiums
- ICAP Tag Tracking: Routine summer capability period activity; no UCAP tag updates or tag period changes reported. Monthly auction operations continue on the ICAP market schedule.
- CBEP Program Alerts: No Customer Benefit Emergency Participation alerts or activations in the last 24 hours.
- Day-Ahead Pricing: The same heat driving PJM’s July 14–17 alert extends into New York midweek. Watch NYC (Zone J) and Long Island (Zone K) day-ahead premiums for July 15–16; Con Edison issued a conservation appeal during the early-July heat episode and downstate load is the pressure point again this week.
ERCOT — 4CP window open; no grid condition alerts active
- 4CP Season Tracking: The June–September 4CP window is active and July’s monthly peak is still unset. Mid-July late-afternoon intervals (roughly HE 16–18) remain the candidate hours; load-managed customers should treat any 100+ degree stretch this week as a potential 4CP day.
- ORDC Pricing: No high ORDC adder events, reserve shortfalls, or VOLL approaches reported in the last 24 hours.
- Grid Condition Alerts: No Weather Watch, Watch, Warning, or Conservation Alert currently posted via TXANS. ERCOT’s 2026 summer outlook flagged rising demand across West and Central weather zones.
ISO-NE — Quiet capacity market; heat returns to New England midweek
- FCM Tag Events: No Forward Capacity Market qualification events, de-list bids, or show-cause notices in the last 24 hours. FERC’s new large-load show cause order applies to ISO-NE, with a 60-day response window.
- Capacity Market Integration: Structural news only: ISO-NE trimmed its 10-year demand forecast for a third straight year on slower electrification, which feeds future capacity requirements.
- Load Forecasting: Heat returns to New England midweek. The early-July event pushed regional demand to roughly 25,850 MW against a seasonal outlook of about 25.2 GW, with spot prices jumping sharply; compare this week’s forecasts against that benchmark.
MISO — Cleared the early-July heat without emergency; capacity prices well below last year
- Zonal Pricing: No unusual zonal spreads reported in the last 24 hours; watch Zones 4–7 for congestion as heat rebuilds over the Midwest alongside the PJM event.
- Planning Resource Auction: The 2026/27 PRA cleared with sufficient capacity in all zones, with summer prices at $424.30/MW-day in North/Central, down sharply from $666.50/MW-day last year; annualized prices fell to $116–126/MW-day. No new Zone 4 concerns.
- Real-Time Settlements: MISO managed the early-July heat with a conservative operations declaration only, avoiding a max gen emergency; no unusual settlement or make-whole activity reported.
CAISO — No Flex Alerts; comfortable summer supply position
- Flex Alerts: None issued or expected; no demand response call-outs in the last 24 hours.
- Renewable Curtailment: Routine midday solar curtailment continues as a structural feature; no overgeneration emergency. Daily volumes are posted in CAISO’s curtailment reports.
- NQC Integration: CAISO posted its review of final 2026 RA compliance filings and deficiency determination; the 2026 summer assessment shows a 2,547 MW surplus above the reliability standard.
Cross-Market Watch — Midweek heat in the East; FERC moves on large loads
- Weather: A multi-day heat event covers the Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, and Northeast July 14–17, with PJM’s Hot Weather Alert the clearest operational signal. Wednesday and Thursday are the days to watch across PJM, NYISO, ISO-NE, and eastern MISO.
- Regulatory: FERC issued Section 206 show cause orders to all six jurisdictional RTOs/ISOs on large-load (data center) integration; each has 60 days to justify current tariffs or file changes. Expect tariff activity across every market this quarter.
HOW INTELLASTAR ENERGY ANALYST CAN HELP
Today’s conditions create specific opportunities — and risks — for your organization.
PJM — Elevated
Two of this week’s forecast peaks are strong 5CP candidates, and missing them means paying next year’s capacity charges on avoidable load.
Intellastar Energy Analyst tracks PJM load forecasts against 5CP thresholds and flags candidate peak hours before they hit. Your team gets a clear curtail-or-hold call for Wednesday and Thursday instead of guessing.
ERCOT — Watch
The 4CP window is open and July’s peak interval, which sets next year’s transmission charges, has not happened yet.
Intellastar Energy Analyst monitors ERCOT load against historical 4CP intervals and alerts you on likely peak afternoons. You curtail only on the days that count, protecting your transmission cost allocation without over-curtailing.
NYISO — Watch
Midweek heat could set the coincident peak that determines your ICAP tag and next year’s capacity bill.
Intellastar Energy Analyst watches NYISO statewide load and zone-level forecasts so you know when a tag-setting hour is likely. That turns capacity cost management from a year-end surprise into a decision you make this week.