Energy Market Daily Digest — July 3, 2026

Market status — July 3, 2026

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Morning briefing for July 3, 2026. A historic early-July heat dome over the eastern half of the country drove record demand, four-digit day-ahead prices, and federal emergency orders across multiple ISOs this week. Here is what matters today.

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PJM — Critical: Record Demand and DOE Emergency Orders

• 5CP Capacity Tags: July 2 was almost certainly a 5CP event. PJM forecast demand of roughly 166,100 to 166,300 MW, exceeding the all-time record of 165,563 MW set in 2006, with the peak hour around 5:00 PM EDT (Utility Dive, Yes Energy). Curtailment-service customers should treat July 1 and July 2 peak hours as tagged until PJM confirms.
• Real-Time LMP: Extreme prices across the footprint. Western Hub day-ahead LMPs settled as high as $1,222.75/MWh on July 1, and July 2 day-ahead prices cleared north of $2,000/MWh (Yes Energy, Grid Status). Operating reserves fell to about 5,091 MW on July 1, down from roughly 11,000 MW the day before.
• Demand Response: Two DOE emergency orders are in effect through July 3, authorizing PJM to curtail data centers and large loads of 50 MW or more (switching them to backup generation within 15 minutes of an emergency signal) and to waive certain power plant emission limits (Maryland Matters, Reuters). Highest stress zones: Maryland, Virginia, D.C., and Delaware.

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NYISO — Elevated: Near-Record Load, Thin Margins

• Day-Ahead Pricing: NYISO posted four-digit day-ahead prints during the July 2 heat peak alongside PJM and MISO (Grid Status). Actual load earlier in the event beat the highest forecast by more than 1 GW, a sign forecast risk remains high through the weekend.
• ICAP Tag Tracking: Demand approached record levels; the all-time NYISO peak of 33,956 MW (July 2013) was in play during this event, making July 1 and 2 strong candidates for the summer coincident peak that sets ICAP tags (Utility Dive).
• Reliability Context: NYISO entered this summer with the thinnest margins in recent history. Under an extended 95-degree heat wave scenario the capacity margin turns negative (about -1,679 MW), with roughly 1,164 MW of demand response available to call (Utility Dive). No confirmed CBEP activation notices found in public reporting; monitor NYISO notices directly.

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ERCOT — Watch: 4CP Season Active, Grid Stable

• 4CP Season Tracking: We are in the 4CP window (June through September). ERCOT forecasts a summer 2026 peak between roughly 90,500 and 98,000 MW, which would break the 85,508 MW all-time record from August 2023, driven by data center and population growth (CultureMap). July afternoons remain prime 4CP candidates; transmission-cost-exposed loads should stay on daily peak alerts.
• ORDC and Grid Conditions: The eastern heat dome largely spared Texas this week; no VOLL-level ORDC events or emergency alerts surfaced in public reporting. ERCOT puts the probability of a grid emergency at 0.21 percent for July (Energy Capital). Check the ERCOT dashboards for intraday adders.

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ISO-NE — Elevated: Precautionary Alert, Little Surplus

• Load and Operations: ISO-NE issued a precautionary alert for all of New England on July 1 due to hot, humid weather and anticipated tight conditions over the July 2 evening peak. The region could meet demand and reserve requirements but had little surplus capacity for unanticipated events (InDepthNH).
• FCM and Capacity Context: No new FCM qualification events or de-list activity in the last 24 hours. Structurally, the region continues to lean on older peakers post-Mystic retirement, and meaningful new capacity is at least a year out, keeping capacity value elevated (InDepthNH).

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MISO — Elevated: Record Watch and Four-Digit Prices

• Zonal Pricing: MISO posted four-digit day-ahead prices during the July 2 heat peak, with the heaviest stress in eastern and southern zones as the heat dome settled over the central and eastern U.S. (Grid Status). Forecasts indicated MISO’s 127.1 GW demand record could fall during this event (ABC News).
• Planning Resource Auction: No new PRA activity; the 2026/27 auction (posted April 28) cleared summer capacity at $424.30/MW-day North/Central, down from last year’s record $666.50, with annualized prices of $116 to $126/MW-day and 12.2 GW of solar clearing, up 59 percent year over year (Syso, Modo Energy).

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CAISO — Quiet: No Flex Alerts, Watching the West

• Flex Alerts: No Flex Alerts issued or expected today; the heat event is concentrated east of the Rockies. CAISO has not needed a Flex Alert in over two years, helped by more than 16,000 MW of new capacity added since fall 2022, mostly 4-hour batteries (CAISO).
• Curtailment and RA: No notable overgeneration or curtailment events flagged in the last 24 hours; midsummer load absorbs most solar output. No new NQC updates or RA deficiency notices surfaced; 2026 RA compliance continues under the slice-of-day framework (CPUC).

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Cross-Market Watch

• Eastern heat dome: PJM, NYISO, MISO, and ISO-NE all approached or exceeded demand records July 1 and 2, with day-ahead prices above $2,000/MWh in PJM and four-digit prints in NYISO and MISO (Grid Status).
• Federal action: DOE Section 202(c) emergency orders for PJM run through July 3, covering data center curtailment authority and emissions waivers (Reuters). Watch for extension notices today if heat lingers.
• Structural theme: AI and data center load growth is now a named driver of record demand in PJM, ERCOT, and MISO coverage this week (Al Jazeera).

HOW INTELLASTAR ENERGY ANALYST CAN HELP

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