Energy Market Daily Digest — July 4, 2026

Market status — July 4, 2026

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Morning briefing for July 4, 2026. The story of the week remains the historic Eastern heat dome: PJM likely broke its all-time peak demand record on July 2, NYISO declared an Energy Watch, and MISO printed four-digit LMPs. Conditions ease slightly into the holiday weekend but heat persists.

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PJM — Record Peak, DR Activated, Emergency Orders Active

• 5CP Capacity Tags: July 1 and July 2 are near-certain 5CP candidate days. July 1 delivered 161,859 MW (second-highest load day in PJM history) and July 2 was forecast at 166,241 MW, above the all-time record of 165,563 MW set in 2006. Preliminary metered peak on July 2 was roughly 162,700 MW, suppressed by demand response; PJM says the true peak likely exceeded the 2006 record, with official figures pending a 60-day DR performance review (PJM Inside Lines, Yes Energy).
• Real-Time LMP: RTO-wide LMPs pushed near $2,000/MWh over the peak period, with Western Hub day-ahead settling as high as $1,222.75/MWh. Operating reserves sank to about 5,091 MW from roughly 11,000 MW the prior day (Yes Energy, CPV Retail).
• Demand Response: PJM activated Pre-Emergency Demand Response (about 6,000 MW) RTO-wide on the afternoon of July 2. Two DOE Section 202(c) emergency orders were in effect through July 3, authorizing curtailment of data centers and other large loads of 50 MW or more (Utility Dive, The Hill).

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NYISO — Energy Watch, Near-Record Peak

• ICAP Tag Tracking: Thursday July 2 peaked at an estimated 32,410 MW, close to the state record of 33,956 MW from July 2013. This is very likely the coincident peak hour that will set ICAP tags for the upcoming capability year; customers should confirm their interval data for that hour (NY State of Politics).
• CBEP / Emergency Programs: NYISO declared an Energy Watch as reserves declined and called on enrolled large loads to curtail, with the Governor urging statewide conservation. No CBEP-specific activation details published (WRVO).
• Day-Ahead Pricing: NYISO posted four-digit LMP prints alongside MISO during the July 2 peak, with the widest stress in NYC and Long Island zones (Yes Energy).

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ERCOT — In 4CP Window, No Emergency Alerts

• 4CP Season Tracking: We are in the July 4CP month. Triple-digit heat statewide with Houston heat index values of 105 to 107 means late-afternoon intervals on the hottest weekdays ahead are strong 4CP candidates. Summer peak is forecast at 90,500 to 98,000 MW, well above the 85,508 MW record from August 2023 (CultureMap, Wego).
• ORDC Pricing: No high ORDC adder events or reserve shortfalls reported in the last 24 hours. ERCOT pegs July grid-emergency risk at just 0.21 percent (CultureMap Houston).
• Grid Condition Alerts: No Weather Watch, Conservation Appeal, or emergency notices currently posted for this period (ERCOT TXANS).

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ISO-NE — Tight But Managed

• Load Forecasting: ISO-NE expected about 25,850 MW at the Thursday evening peak, its highest load of 2026 so far, and warned of “exceptionally tight operating conditions.” That remains below the roughly 29,000 MW available this summer and below the 28,130 MW all-time record from August 2006 (WBUR).
• FCM / Capacity Market: No new Forward Capacity Market qualification events, de-list bids, or show-cause notices in the last 24 hours. ISO-NE says it does not anticipate public conservation calls or controlled outages this summer (ISO Newswire).

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MISO — Four-Digit LMPs on Thin Reserves

• Zonal Pricing: MISO posted four-digit LMP prints on July 2 as the heat dome settled over the eastern half of the country. Analysts note this was a pure demand story rather than an outage event: reserves thinned and prices responded (Yes Energy).
• Peak Watch: MISO’s own peak demand record could be challenged this week as heat persists across its 15-state footprint (Industrial Info).
• Planning Resource Auction / Settlements: No new PRA results or unusual real-time settlement activity reported in the last 24 hours.

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CAISO — Quiet While the East Burns

• Flex Alerts: No Flex Alerts issued or expected. CAISO’s 2026 Summer Assessment shows a healthy planning surplus of about 2,547 MW, backed by more than 16,000 MW of battery storage added since 2020 (CAISO).
• Curtailment / NQC: No notable solar or wind curtailment events or NQC and resource adequacy filings flagged in the last 24 hours. Roughly 6,194 MW of new RA-eligible capacity was expected online by June 30 (CAISO).

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Cross-Market Watch

• Eastern heat dome: Extreme heat through the July 4 weekend, with NWS highs of 102 to 104 degrees F in parts of Maryland and Virginia, is simultaneously stressing PJM, NYISO, ISO-NE, and MISO (Utility Dive).
• Federal action: DOE Section 202(c) emergency orders for PJM (effective June 30, expiring late July 3) authorized data center curtailment and waived certain power plant emissions limits, a notable precedent for large-load flexibility mandates (The Hill).

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