Energy Market Daily Digest — July 6, 2026

Market status — July 6, 2026

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Morning briefing for Monday, July 6, 2026. The story of the past several days is the Eastern heat dome: PJM, NYISO, ISO-NE, and MISO all ran at or near record demand through the July 4 holiday weekend, with federal emergency orders in effect in PJM and MISO entering conservative operations this morning. CAISO remains quiet. Details by market below.

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PJM — Emergency Conditions, Record Demand

• Real-Time LMP: July 1 posted the second-highest load day in PJM history at 161,859 MW (HE18), with Western Hub day-ahead LMP settling as high as $1,222.75/MWh versus $450.37 on the comparable June 2025 peak day. Operating reserves sank to 5,091 MW on July 1 from 10,996 MW the day before, and new congestion patterns continue to push Western Hub real-time prices above average. (Yes Energy)
• Demand Response / Emergency Actions: PJM ordered emergency power curbs on July 4 as demand neared a 20-year record. Two DOE 202(c) emergency orders authorized PJM to curtail data centers and other large loads of 50 MW or more (backup generation required within 15 minutes of an emergency signal) and to waive power plant pollution limits through July 3. This is the third 202(c) order for PJM in 2026. (Electric Choice, RTO Insider)
• 5CP Capacity Tags: PJM forecast peak demand of 166,304 MW last week, above the all-time record of 165,563 MW set in 2006. Peak hours from July 1 through 3 are near-certain 5CP candidates, and with heat lingering early this week, additional 5CP-setting hours remain possible in the 2:00 to 6:00 p.m. window. Curtailment-capable customers should stay on alert. (Utility Dive, PJM)

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NYISO — Near-Record Demand, Conservation Appeals

• Load and Pricing: Peak demand reached an estimated 32,410 MW on Thursday, July 2, approaching the state record of 33,956 MW set in July 2013. NYISO warned demand could approach record highs through the heat event, and sustained air-conditioning load is pressuring generation and transmission statewide. (Spectrum News)
• Demand Response: Con Edison issued a customer appeal on July 2 asking customers to limit use of multiple air conditioners and large appliances between 2 and 10 p.m. NYISO also asked customers to voluntarily conserve where safe. No CBEP activation was found in public reporting. (Spectrum News)
• ICAP: No new UCAP tag updates or auction results in the last 24 hours. Note that NYISO modified ICAP tag calculation rules effective this summer, worth reviewing for tag-management clients. (Veolia)

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ERCOT — 4CP Window Active, Conditions Normal

• 4CP Season: The 4CP window (June through September) is active. July’s coincident peak interval is typically set on the hottest weekday afternoons; roughly 4,300 MW of 4CP load response was observed in 2025, so competition to dodge the peak remains heavy. (Grid Status)
• Scarcity Pricing: With Real-Time Co-Optimization plus Batteries (RTC+B) in effect, legacy ORDC adders have been replaced by Ancillary Service Demand Curves embedded in real-time dispatch. No scarcity pricing events or reserve shortfalls were reported in the last 24 hours. (Amperon)
• Grid Alerts: No Weather Watch, Watch, Warning, or Conservation Alert currently in effect per public reporting. Texas has so far avoided the extreme heat hitting the East. (ERCOT)

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ISO-NE — Tight Operations, Elevated Prices

• Load Forecast: Peak demand topped 25,800 MW on Thursday, about 600 MW above the July 2025 peak, and ISO-NE expected roughly 26,000 MW daily through the heat wave. That is near the 26,473 MW above-average-temperature planning scenario for the summer. (WWLP, ISO Newswire)
• Pricing: Wholesale prices in Massachusetts ran between roughly $90 and $200/MWh Thursday afternoon as temperatures topped 100 degrees, versus a July 2025 average near $60. ISO-NE reported exceptionally tight conditions with little surplus generating capacity, though supply held. (Boston Globe, InDepthNH)
• FCM: No new qualification events or de-list activity in the last 24 hours. The longer-term story remains the proposed shift to a prompt capacity auction. (Utility Dive)

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MISO — Conservative Operations Declared Today

• Grid Conditions: A maximum generation capacity advisory took effect at 8 a.m. ET today (July 6) for the North and Central regions, which also entered conservative operations at 1 p.m. until further notice. A hot weather alert issued July 1 has been extended through July 10. The South region saw max gen alerts and a transmission emergency during the heat dome last week. (MISO, RTO Insider)
• Zonal Pricing: Expect elevated LMPs and congestion in Central region zones today given the advisory; MISO may also lean on PJM imports, tightening interface pricing. Day-ahead congestion costs were already trending up, at $1.3 billion in 2024. (Potomac Economics)
• Planning Resource Auction: The 2026/27 PRA (cleared late April) settled at $424.30/MW-day for North and Central summer, down from $666.50 last year but still structurally tight; 12.2 GW of accredited solar cleared, up 59% year over year. (Syso, Enel)

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CAISO — Quiet, Healthy Margins

• Flex Alerts: None issued or expected. The 2026 summer assessment shows a surplus of 2,547 MW above planning targets, and battery storage (over 16,000 MW added since 2020) continues to carry the evening ramp. (CAISO)
• Curtailment: No notable overgeneration event reported in the last 24 hours; daily curtailment reports are available from CAISO for granular tracking. (CAISO)
• NQC / RA: No new NQC updates or RA deficiency notices in the last 24 hours. About 6,194 MW of additional RA-eligible capacity was expected online by June 30, 2026. (CAISO)

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Cross-Market Watch

• Eastern Heat Dome: PJM, NYISO, ISO-NE, and IESO all exceeded last summer’s peaks before July even began, and the July 4 weekend brought heat indices of 110 to 113 degrees from Washington to New York. MISO is now in conservative operations while leaning on PJM support. (ABC News, Grid Status)
• Federal Emergency Orders: DOE 202(c) orders authorized PJM data center curtailment and emissions waivers through July 3, the third such order this year, a notable precedent for large-load curtailment as a grid tool. (Electric Choice)
• Regulatory: In June, FERC issued Section 206 show cause orders to all six RTOs/ISOs on large-load interconnection rules, with 60-day response windows now running. The new FERC oil pipeline index (PPI-FG minus 0.55%) took effect July 1. (FERC, Akin)

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