Market status — July 8, 2026
Emergency
Elevated
Watch
Normal
PJM — Standing down from last week’s emergency; 5CP tag hours likely set
- 5CP Capacity Tags: The June 30–July 4 heat dome almost certainly locked in several 5CP candidate hours. PJM reported instantaneous load of roughly 162,700 MW on the evening of July 2, with demand response suppressing the metered figure, and said actual demand likely surpassed the 2006 all-time record of 165,563 MW. Organizations that curtailed during those late-afternoon windows likely improved their capacity tags; details in the PJM July 3 operations update.
- Real-Time LMP: No notable spikes reported in the last 24 hours as the Hot Weather Alert (extended through July 5 for Mid-Atlantic and Dominion zones) has expired and loads have moderated. The DOE 202(c) emergency order that let fossil units exceed environmental limits ran July 1–3 and was requested for extension through July 6; see RTO Insider and Utility Dive.
- Demand Response: PJM called emergency demand response during the July 2 evening peak after generation tripped offline, per RTO Insider. DR participants dispatched last week should reconcile performance data now. Separately, FERC this week denied a waiver for a $2B gas plant seeking PJM fast-track review.
NYISO — Post-heat-wave watch; near-record peak logged July 2
- ICAP Tag Tracking: The July 2 heat wave peak, which NYISO projected at 32,410 MW, is the leading candidate for the summer coincident peak that drives next year’s ICAP tags — within about 1,500 MW of the 2013 all-time record. No new ICAP auction results posted in the last 24 hours.
- CBEP Program Alerts: No emergency participation activations reported today. Con Edison’s July 2 conservation appeal (limit A/C and large appliance use 2–10 p.m.) has lapsed with the cooler pattern, per Utility Dive.
- Day-Ahead Pricing: Zone-level spreads have normalized from last week’s event. NYISO’s own summer outlook flagged negative capacity margins in extended 95-degree-plus heat waves, so tag-relevant peaks remain possible through August; background in Utility Dive.
ERCOT — 4CP window active; no grid alerts in effect
- 4CP Season Tracking: The June–September 4CP window is in month two, and July afternoons historically produce a coincident peak. Last week’s heat dome centered on the central and eastern U.S., so ERCOT avoided the extreme stress seen in PJM. Transmission-cost-exposed loads should stay ready for late-afternoon peak intervals on hot weekdays.
- ORDC Pricing: No high-adder events reported in the last 24 hours. ERCOT’s Independent Market Monitor reported this week that shortage pricing continues to decline as solar and storage additions deepen reserves, per RTO Insider.
- Grid Condition Alerts: No Weather Watch, Conservation Appeal, or emergency notice currently active on ERCOT’s TXANS notification system.
ISO-NE — Quiet operations; capacity market redesign advancing
- Capacity Market Integration: ISO-NE presented refined details of its Capacity Auction Reforms transition at the NEPOOL Markets Committee on July 7, continuing the shift from a three-year forward auction to a prompt, seasonal design targeted for the 2028/29 commitment period, per RTO Insider. The prompt/deactivation component was accepted by FERC on March 30; the seasonal/accreditation filing is expected in Q4.
- Load Forecasting: Loads have eased from the July 2 event, when ISO-NE forecast a 25,850 MW peak and warned of exceptionally tight conditions. This week’s outlook is seasonal; current margins on the seven-day capacity forecast.
MISO — Back to normal operations after conservative-operations declaration
- Zonal Pricing: No unusual zonal spreads or congestion events reported in the last 24 hours. MISO’s June 30 conservative operations declaration for the heat dome has expired with the event, per RTO Insider.
- Real-Time Settlements: The Independent Market Monitor this week advocated cutting transmission charges for storage and debuted six market improvement ideas — structural proposals worth tracking for settlement impacts, not near-term price movers.
CAISO — Quiet grid; demand-side market reforms on deck
- Flex Alerts: No Flex Alerts issued or expected; the early-July heat centered on the central and eastern U.S., leaving Western conditions moderate.
- NQC Integration: CAISO’s review of final 2026 resource adequacy compliance filings and deficiency determinations remains posted for load-serving entities to verify positions, per CAISO notices. A July 9 stakeholder meeting on the Demand and Distributed Energy Market Integration initiative will cover metering reforms that better recognize behind-the-meter demand response.
Cross-Market Watch
- Heat dome aftermath: The June 30–July 4 event touched four eastern markets at once — a DOE Section 202(c) emergency order for PJM, MISO conservative operations, near-record NYISO load, and exceptionally tight ISO-NE conditions, per Utility Dive. Expect elevated attention to coincident-peak data and DR performance reconciliation across all four this week.
- Regulatory: FERC’s 2026 summer assessment remains the baseline reliability reference for the season, and its June show-cause orders directing RTOs to fix large-load interconnection rules continue to drive filings across PJM, MISO, and ERCOT, per RTO Insider.
HOW INTELLASTAR ENERGY ANALYST CAN HELP
Today’s conditions create specific opportunities — and risks — for your organization.
Last week’s record-setting peaks likely defined your 5CP hours — whether your facilities curtailed during them decides next year’s capacity charges.
Intellastar Energy Analyst identifies which hours are likely to finish in the top five coincident peaks and verifies how your loads performed during each candidate window. That lets you confirm your capacity tag position now instead of discovering it on next year’s bill.
July 2 is the front-runner for New York’s summer coincident peak, and your load during that hour will shape your ICAP tag for the coming capability year.
Intellastar Energy Analyst tracks candidate peak hours through the summer and models your ICAP tag exposure as new heat events emerge. You get an early, data-backed view of your capacity obligation while there is still time to act on remaining peak days.
Texas escaped last week’s heat dome, but the 4CP window is wide open and July afternoons routinely set the coincident peaks that drive transmission costs.
Intellastar Energy Analyst forecasts likely 4CP days and intervals so your team can plan curtailments with confidence instead of chasing every hot afternoon. Fewer false alarms, better hit rate on the peaks that actually count.