Market status — September 3, 2026
PJMEmergency
NYISOWatch
ERCOTWatch
ISO-NENormal
MISONormal
CAISOWatch
Emergency
Elevated
Watch
Normal
PJM — Emergency procedures active; today is the peak day of the heat event
- 5CP Capacity Tags: Today is the day to watch. PJM forecasts a peak of 152,496 MW for Sept. 3, essentially matching the 152,518 MW preliminary integrated peak set Sept. 1, per the Sept. 2 hot weather operations update. Both days are strong candidates for the 2026 summer 5CP set, and a Hot Weather Alert remains in effect region-wide through today.
- Real-Time LMP: PJM issued a Maximum Generation Alert for Sept. 3, which defers generation and transmission maintenance and signals that exports to neighboring systems may be curtailed. Expect firm pricing into the evening ramp; PJM has not yet published hub-level settlement data for the event.
- Demand Response: PJM called a Pre-Emergency Load Management Action on Sept. 1 across the Pepco, BGE, AEP, Dominion and ComEd zones, and has a Load Management Alert in place for today. PJM also holds a DOE emergency order effective through Sept. 8 granting temporary relief from environmental permit limits and allowing it to direct backup generation at large loads.
NYISO — No alerts, but sitting next door to the PJM heat with thin structural margins
- ICAP Tag Tracking: No unforced capacity tag revisions or off-cycle auction notices posted in the last 24 hours. The Summer Capability Period runs through Oct. 31, so any peak set this week still counts toward next year’s ICAP allocation for New York load.
- CBEP Program Alerts: No Special Case Resource or Emergency Demand Response Program activations reported. Demand-side resources remain available but uncalled.
- Day-Ahead Pricing: New York was a net exporter into New England on the AC ties in the Sept. 2 ISO-NE capacity report, which points to comfortable in-state supply rather than scarcity. Worth keeping in view: NYISO flagged this summer’s reliability margins as the lowest in recent history, with a negative capacity margin modeled under a sustained 95-degree heat wave.
ERCOT — Quiet grid, but the final month of the 4CP window is live
- 4CP Season Tracking: September is the last of the four 4CP months, and the September interval carries full weight in the 4CP transmission cost allocation. June, July and August intervals are already behind us; anyone curtailing for 4CP has one month of exposure left.
- ORDC Pricing: No reserve shortfall events or sustained Operating Reserve Demand Curve adders reported. Reserves are adequate and no scarcity pricing has been flagged.
- Grid Condition Alerts: No active Weather Watch, Voluntary Conservation Notice or Conservation Appeal on the TXANS dashboard. Separately, ERCOT missed its Batch Zero notification deadline for large-load interconnection classifications, a timing slip worth tracking for anyone in that queue.
ISO-NE — Comfortable surplus; the news is regulatory, not operational
- Load Forecasting: The Sept. 2 operational capacity report shows a peak forecast of 15,640 MW against 21,091 MW of available capacity, a surplus of 3,412 MW. Boston and Hartford peak-hour highs were forecast in the upper 60s. Yesterday’s peak was 15,304 MW, well below the 25,228 MW annual peak load exposure.
- Capacity Market Integration: FERC accepted a cut in the ISO-NE pay-for-performance rate from $9,337/MWh to $3,500/MWh, finding the lower rate still provides adequate performance incentive. This materially changes both the upside and the downside on capacity performance settlement for New England resources.
- FCM Tag Events: No qualification actions, de-list bid rulings or show-cause notices in the last 24 hours. Transmission owners and consumer advocates are still contesting the base ROE methodology ahead of the Nov. 30 effective date.
MISO — No emergency notifications; the structural changes are what matter
- Planning Resource Auction: The 2026 PRA showed sufficient capacity across all four seasons for the June 2026 to May 2027 planning year, with offered capacity up as much as 4% per season. Summer remains the tightest season on the supply-demand balance.
- Zonal Pricing: No maximum generation events, emergency declarations or notable congestion advisories posted to MISO’s real-time operations notifications. Nothing unusual in zonal spreads today.
- Real-Time Settlements: Two rule changes are now in effect and worth confirming in your own settlement assumptions. MISO consolidated Max Gen Events from five steps to three and eliminated the Maximum Generation Alert as of June 1, and energy efficiency no longer qualifies as a capacity resource starting with the 2026/27 auction.
CAISO — Entering the most stressed month of the year with adequate reserves
- Flex Alerts: No Flex Alert, Energy Emergency Alert or restricted maintenance operation notice is active on CAISO’s emergency notifications page. Demand response has not been called.
- NQC Integration: CAISO’s 2026 Summer Loads and Resources Assessment identifies September as the most stressed month of the year, driven by high evening load against falling solar output. The CEC 1-in-2 forecast places the annual managed peak at 46,844 MW in hour ending 18 this week, 543 MW above the July high. The same assessment shows 2,547 MW of margin above the 1-in-10 loss-of-load planning target.
- Renewable Curtailment: Midday overgeneration remains a structural feature of shoulder-season operations rather than an event today. Note that CAISO stopped publishing its production and curtailment dataset in June 2025, so curtailment visibility now depends on other operational reports.
Cross-Market Watch — A federal emergency order, a queue fight, and new large-load rules
- Federal action: The DOE emergency order supporting PJM runs through Sept. 8 and includes authority to direct backup generation at large loads, an escalation of the large-load curtailment authority DOE first granted PJM in May. Organizations with on-site backup generation in PJM should confirm their notification and dispatch protocols this week.
- Regulatory: NERC is taking comment on Rules of Procedure revisions addressing reliability risks from data centers and other computational large loads, a change that will eventually touch every ISO. An Aug. 26 executive order restricting imports of bulk power system equipment adds fresh supply-chain risk for transformers, inverters and substation gear.
- Interconnection: Oklo has filed a FERC complaint against PJM over removal of a 750 MW project from the Cycle 1 queue, a dispute that could shape how strictly RTOs enforce queue milestones.
HOW INTELLASTAR ENERGY ANALYST CAN HELP
Today’s conditions create specific opportunities — and risks — for your organization.
PJM — Emergency
Today is a live 5CP candidate, and missing it costs you all next year.
Intellastar Energy Analyst watches PJM load forecasts against your own coincident peak history and tells you which hours actually matter, not just that it is hot. When a Load Management Alert lands, you know whether to curtail and what the tag is worth before the peak hour arrives.
ERCOT — Watch
One 4CP interval is left this year, and a quiet grid is exactly when people stop watching.
Intellastar Energy Analyst keeps your September 4CP exposure in front of you even when ERCOT is not issuing alerts, so a mild forecast does not turn into a missed interval. You get the load-versus-threshold picture for your own meters, not a generic grid summary.
NYISO — Watch
Your ICAP tag for next year is being written by peaks happening right now.
Intellastar Energy Analyst tracks your contribution to the NYISO peak through the Summer Capability Period and flags the days most likely to set your unforced capacity obligation. That turns a bill you find out about months later into a decision you can make today.